Gold Price Prediction: Buy Or Sell This Week
Today’s gold price forecast: Given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the world economy, gold prices are predicted to remain range-bound in the days ahead. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.’s Commodity Research, offers his predictions for gold prices and advice for gold investors.
Domestically, gold prices reached an all-time high last week due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, a disappointing US jobs report, and predictions of interest rate cuts. In a similar vein, US yields saw some pressure despite solid consumer confidence data, which was overshadowed by lackluster July job growth and negative revisions to previous payrolls, indicating a worsening labor market that supported bullion the week before. The dollar index was in a narrow band of ~98-~99.
Reports of a 39% US tariff on Swiss 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars confused the end of last week. Prices initially spiked before the White House clarified the story was untrue, which caused a reversal. While trade discussions with China are set to expire on August 12, President Trump announced intentions to meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss resolving the war in Ukraine.
After Powell retires, Trump is also anticipated to choose the first economist, Miran, as Fed Governor. Asia’s demand for physical gold increased early in the week but declined later because of high prices, and China’s inflation figures underwhelmed, putting pressure on industrial metals like silver.
Key US inflation, retail sales, and IIP data are currently the focus of the market.
Data points this week will be crucial because, if the US CPI report is stronger than anticipated, it indicates that the tariff impact has begun to affect prices, which is what Governor Powell had anticipated. It may also alter the expectations for interest rate cuts this year and the following. India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to their lowest point since 2025, indicating the RBI’s active participation in the market and fluctuations in the USDINR. Since this week is shortened due to domestic holidays, it will be crucial to monitor movements in the USDINR. Additionally, attention will be paid to President Trump’s remarks regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as tariff updates with China and India.
Gold Outlook: 99,500–1,02,000 range bound
(Disclaimer: Experts’ opinions and recommendations regarding the stock market and other asset classes are their own. The Times of India does not endorse these viewpoints.)
