Vikings vs. Week 12 odds breakdown

They’ll be hoping to build on last week’s close call with a touchdown on a punt return by Marcus Jones. The 8-2 Minnesota Vikings, who were defeated 40-3 by the Dallas Cowboys last week, are standing in their way.

Currently, the Vikings are a 3.0-point home favorite and are getting slightly over 75% of the public betting. The DraftKings Sportsbook has the game’s point total at 42.5 over for Thursday night.

For the first time in ten years, the New England Patriots (+3) will play on Thanksgiving night.

Mac Air

The game is this. The Patriots passing attack finally comes to life in this game.

The Vikings’ secondary is seriously injured, to begin with. Cornerbacks Andrew Booth Jr. (knee) and Akayleb Evans (concussion) won’t be available, and Cam Dantzler is already on injured reserve.

From there, New England should be able to counter Minnesota’s zone defense with some success through the air. With the third-highest expected points added per play-action attempt (+0.25), the Vikings have been one of the worst teams this season against play-action. In their under-center, play-action game against the Jets last week, New England found some success and ought to rely on it going forward.

To top it all off, Minnesota’s game on Thursday night will take place within a dome. Perfect working circumstances for Mac Jones and Co. Look for New England’s passing attack to have increased success through the air if the offensive line can hold up for just a little while longer.

The choices:

First, Mac Jones More than 19.5 passes completed (-105)

Second, Mac Jones passes for more than 222.5 yards (-115)

Primary Kirk

The Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, might have a difficult Thanksgiving night. A big game against Minnesota could be in store for the Patriots’ top-ranked defense after their recent dominance.

The pass rush, which ranks second in the league with a 29.8% pressure rate, has been the driving force behind the Patriots’ success this season. Look for the Patriots to heat up Cousins like a Thanksgiving turkey as Minnesota is once again missing its great left tackle Christian Darrisaw (concussion), just as the Dallas Cowboys did this past weekend (60 percent pressure rate).

Cousins has performed poorly under pressure this season. When under pressure, his completion percentage decreases by more than 30 points, and his turnover-worthy play rate more than doubles from 2.2 to 4.9 percent.

Expect Cousins’ problems to stem from the Patriots’ pass rush on Thursday.

Kirk Cousins was chosen. 0.5 or more interceptions plus 100.

Warm Henry

One of the Patriots’ major problems this season on the offensive side of the ball has been their struggles in the red area. With only 12 touchdowns, the unit currently ranks 31st out of 32 teams in the red-area offense. Hunter Henry’s disappearance in that region has had a role in some of those. Henry just has one touchdown this year after leading the team with nine last year.

If there’s a week where the Patriots can start to improve, it’s this one against Minnesota, whose red-zone defense is the lowest in the league after allowing 20 touchdowns in 28 opponent trips. Last week, Henry was available for a potential pair of scores, but Jones was unable to locate him. This week, that changes.

Treat for Thanksgiving

Even while playing the 8-2 Vikings, who feature explosive skill players like Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, might seem like a difficult job, New England has a good chance of winning this game. The worst total DVOA for an 8-2 club since the metric’s inception in 1981 can be found in Minnesota, despite their excellent start to the season in the victory column. They also have a negative point differential.

New England has had success this season on defense playing typical running teams without a quarterback who can move about. From there, they must imitate Dallas with their pass rush to make Kirk Cousins’ life miserable and devise strategies to slow down Jefferson. Definitely feasible.

If New England snags a victory on  Turkey DAY, don’t be shocked.

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